XLCr, thanks for the link to the section in LaRouchePlanet with the history of the crashes. I'm sure I've looked at it before, but I'd forgotten about it. In light of today's forecast that we've all been watching as it didn't occur, and how the org, and LHL himself, respond to its non-occurring, this list is most instructive. While none of the others ever before forecast an exact day, a good number of them pretty much forecast a month. To think that members can read these, year in, year out, and not bat an eyelash is amazing. I have cut and pasted from the LaRouchePlanet page, starting with 1987 (before then, generally, the forecasts were less frequent, less dire in what they forecast (generally just a market collapse like 1929-33), less specific as to exact dates, and sometimes with caveats. Starting with 1987, we gradually ease into the present phase starting with the 1994 "9th forecast", of regularly, yearly forecasts of near-term, certain to materialize, humungous crashes, with pretty specific due dates.
May 1987
LaRouche considers "financial officials"'s forecast of an oct.1987 crash as "not absolutely certain, but ... a very good guess":
"Leading European financial officials have warned my associates that we should expect to see the beginning of the world's biggest financial crash by October of this year. My comment on that forecast: It might not occur in just that way, but if the Reagan administration continues its present policies, it is certain that the world's economic situation will become much worse than it is today over the summer months. (...) Whether the great financial crash of 1987 erupts by October, or later will depend upon what leading governments do at the international monetary "summit" held in Venice on June 12. Those bankers who are expecting a crash by October make that forecast on the basis of assuming that the U.S. government's role at Venice will be a continuation of the foolish international monetary policy which the Reagan administration has followed over the past five years. In that case, a crash in October would not be absolutely certain, but it would be, at least, a very good guess." (3)
THEN here comes the
Crash of Oct. 19, 1987 ("Black Monday")...
LaRouche lyingly says "he" supplied the "correct date" for the Oct. 1987 financial crash, ignoring this forecast came from "leading European financial officials"!
"I, like Aeschylos' Prometheus, have warned that these policies are leading to precisely the sort of doom of Olympos which exploded on "Black Monday." As early as May 1987 I even supplied what is now proven to have been the correct date for the first eruption of a general collapse of the international financial bubble, the biggest international financial crash in history." (4)
Note: It is untrue. Fidel Castro echoed this "prediction" as early as... 1985 and was published in... LaRouche's own publications!. Castro said: "The count-down of the time bomb of the "debt crisis" [English in original] could reach zero in 1988. The indebted countries will not be able to pay their accounts in 1986, if they are able to honor their interest obligations in 1985. Then the crack appears in 1987 and the castle comes down on top of the king in 1988. The forecast is not only mine. The prophesy also comes from some American economists and certain European bankers. One of these economists just came through Havana. I don't know if he is a good prophet, but he has a Nobel Prize in economics." (19)
This LaRouche's lie has become a "myth" to this day as he recently repeated:
"During June 1987, I had repeatedly forecast, publicly, that unless certain remedial actions were taken during the Summer of that year, the first weeks of that October would see a stock-exchange crisis comparable to 1929. It happened exactly as, and when I had forecast such an event to occur." (27)
Nov. 1987
LaRouche warns that a "second bigger shock" will hit soon
"Let us sum up the situation facing us. "Yes, John, we are plunging into the Second Great Depression of this century, potentially a depression much worse than that of the 193Os.[...]" The first shock of the biggest financial crash in history has happened. The next, bigger shock is about to hit, either immediately, or soon enough." (5)
1988
LaRouche on national television,explaining the "bouncing ball" principle of the financial markets.
He said: "We are now at the brink of the worst world-wide financial crisis-collapse in modern times." (From "Test of Fire" national broadcast, April 5, 1988 )
Meanwhile, the editors of E.I.R. were publishing every week these comparative charts between the crash of 1929-30 and of 1987-88. BUT... by mid-1988 they eventually stopped this intellectual exercise. Why? Click here.
July 1989
LaRouche warns that the "second bigger shock" is about to hit by October
"This year, a second, bigger financial shock is building up steam for a probable October eruption. As the October 1987 bang was parallel to the October 1929 crash, the next one parallels the collapse of September 1931, the collapse which plunged the United States into the Great Depression of the 1930s." (7)
Sept. 1989
LaRouche warns that the "second bigger shock" will hit either by October ... or by March next year
"I think there's an 80% chance we'll have a major financial market crash type of crisis during October, probably plus or minus the tenth of that month." LaRouche predicted. "That' s about a 75-80% likelihood at this point; and if not then, certainly a 95% likelihood, by March. That' s about the way it stands now." (9)
1990
LaRouche repeats his forecast of a financial shock by March-April
"Therefore, I said, that if they do that which they're perfectly capable of doing, that will mean we'll begin to feel a new decline in the markets following October, after Christmas, in January. And then I said that the probability is that by the March 10-April 10 period, there will be a 95% probability that the major crash of this round will have occurred. So today, I say that's the way she stands." (12)
. . . and confirms his earlier "forecasts"
"Each time I have put my neck out to commit myself to a forecast warning, I have been proven correct, and within the general time frame which I specified, by my method of forecasting -- not by somebody else's crystal ball method. I was right in 1987. I was right in 1989, in giving the percentiles, ranging from 75% in October to 95% in April, for the second crash, following the 1987 one, to erupt between October 1989 and the middle of April 1990. The financial system is now crashing down." (15)
1991
"The Great Mudslide of 1991"
LAROUCHE: "Many people have been looking for a definitive one-day, two-day, three-day financial crash, perhaps on the markets, with the New York Dow-Jones (sometimes called Baby Jones) Index, collapsing 500 or 1000 points or something like that. What they are seeing is something a bit different. What they are seeing is the great mudslide of 1991." ((From November 23, 1991 audio recording, TRANSCRIPT OF ABC-TV NATIONAL BROADCAST, "The Man George Bush Fears the Most", Feb. 1, 1992) here
and LaRouche
forecasts a 1992 financial collapse
"What is going to happen, obviously, beginning now, but coming to a head in 1992, is the collapse of the Anglo-American monetary and financial system, upon our heads -- the whole system." (11)
1992
LaRouche says: "As of this point, the world has officially entered into the second and greatest worldwide depression of the 20th century." (22)
1994
Lyndon LaRouche issued his so-called "9th Forecast"
and forecasts a global financial collapse this year or later ...
"The presently existing global financial and monetary system will disintegrate during the near term. The collapse might occur this spring, or summer, or next autumn; it could come next year, it will almost certainly occur during President William Clinton' s first term in office; it will occur soon. That collapse into disintegration is inevitable..." (10)
See also "The Great Financial Mudslide of 1994"
Host Webster Tarpley interviews EIR Economics staff writers John Hoefle & Tony Wikrent. May 31 1994
1995
"Economist Lyndon LaRouche warns... an imminent collapse of the world's financial system."
Economic Advisory from Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr. "Hoarding Crisis Signals Doom of Financial System", August 21, 1995 issue of The New Federalist
LaRouche forecasts the worst financial collapse of the Twentieth Century this year or as late as
early 1997.
"The worst financial collapse of the Twentieth Century could erupt within as soon as weeks, or, in the unlikely case, the disintegration of the system could be postponed until as late as early 1997. " (16)
LaRouche also writes:
"The present writer has forecast just this danger--repeatedly, consistently, and accurately--during the past 30 years..." (16),
contradicting himself from his last year claim to be such an economic forecaster for the last 40 years!!! -(10)-'
See: comment on the "crash" of 1997
THE "TRIPLE CURVE"...
1996
LaRouche: "Economic System Is Near Death" LaRouche Speech on Martin Luther King Day, Washington, D.C., Jan. 16, 1996.
1997
...the second big financial blow of 1997 will hit soon...
"At any time, soon, the second big financial blow of 1997 will bring a new round of temporary panic into financial markets around the world. If it has not already arrived by the time you read this report, you may expect it to arrive, soon. [...] During the recent weeks, most of those highly-placed sources, with whom EIR is in frequent discussion of these matters, have expressed agreement with my estimate, that the next international financial crunch is due soon, and that, when it strikes, it will be much worse than the crunch which hit beginning mid-March." (24)
The crash will occur between August and October...
"Sometime very soon, between now and the end of the year, possibly in the month of August—more probably, no later than October, but certainly by around the end of the year—this world is going to go through one or two of the greatest shocks, financial shocks of the century." EIR June 1997
1998
"There Is No Possible Bail-out of the World Financial System", EIR April 24, 1998
1999
LaRouche says the crash is inevitable in the near future...
"a wildly uncontrolled global financial crash, is inevitable for the near future. Whether before New Year's Day 2000, or not, is still in doubt. " (17)
...and has already occurred since February!
"...the real crash is already here. It has been here since February 1999." (17)
2000
The World on the Brink of the Great Financial Crash
from Proceedings of the historical Schiller Institute-ICLC international conference in Bad Schwalbach, Germany.
... and will be equivalent of the bombing of Pearl Harbor!
"We're headed now, as I've said before, and we're on the edge of it still, for the worst financial crisis in more than 100 years, probably worse than in several hundred years. It's going to hit very soon, it's rumbling. [...] But very soon, it's going to hit the U.S. population with the equivalent of what we experienced on Dec. 7, 1941, with the bombing of Pearl Harbor. "
"Escape from Fantasy into the Hope of Reality", Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.'s webcast videoconference speech on March 4, EIR, March 17, 2000
2001
LaRouche predicts the financial system will collapse by the end of year:
"We are now in the depths of a systemic financial crisis, that, if war does not break out between now and the end of the year, or if there are not assassinations of key figures from among international leaders during this period, by the end of year, purely and simply, the present financial system will have collapsed."
From "How To Survive the Onrushing Global Financial Crash"
Press Release
LaRouche: Crash Was Already Under Way!
In an interview given on Telemax TV and radio, Sonora, Mexico, the asked LaRouche:
Telemax : Mr. LaRouche, about 20 years ago, you forecast an economic crisis, of the sort we're experiencing today. How did you know that this was going to happen, and what are the measures that can be taken to solve this crisis?
LaRouche: Well, this was foreseeable, if you looked at the axiomatic features, [...]And those mistakes were never corrected. Therefore, the crash was inevitable..." here
2002
"...The time is short; the end of the existing system is now. We're talking about weeks, at most, a couple of months, before the banking system centered in New York disintegrates. We're talking about a collapse of the housing bubble, internationally, especially in the United States and the United Kingdom, and similar effects in Europe...."
-- Lyndon LaRouche, November 12, 2002
THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRASH OF 2002
"LaRouche Points to His 1995 'Triple Curve' Forecast of Today's Collapse"
2003
"The world in general has now been plunged already into the greatest economic depression since 1929-1932." "The Weeks of Crisis Before Us" by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr., EIR, January 10, 2003
"...we're on the verge of the greatest financial collapse known to any of you. And it's coming on soon."
2004
LaRouche says: "The Great Crash Of 2004-2005 Is Here!" (20)
THE CRASH YOU WERE HOPING FOR IS HERE! !, from ICLC/Schiller Institute Conference, September 4-5, 2004
2005
"THE GREAT CRASH OF 2005" (21)
+ dirichlet
2006
LaRouche predicts a "collapse of the monetary system by not much later than September 2006, if not earlier. " "Hyperinflation like Weimar 1923: World System on Weimar Collapse Curve" by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr., April 20, 2006
The Crash of 2006
"Organizing the Recovery From the Great Crash of 2007" (23)
2007
LaRouche: "Biggest Economic Crash in Modern History Could Occur as Early as Mid-October, if Not Sooner"
http://www.larouchepac.com/news/2007...d-occur-e.html
2008
LaRouche Webcast: Six Months Into The Greatest Financial Crash Ever at larouchepac.net
2009
LaRouche predicts a complete breakdown of the global financial and economic system by Oct. 14:
"My estimate is that a complete breakdown of the global financial and economic system is highly likely around the 10th to 15th of October--say Oct. 12, after the end of the U.S. government's fiscal year,'' LaRouche warned. "We're looking at a threatened potential, total, chain reaction breakdown of the U.S. and the world. "
From Take Back The Bailout, Reorganize the System! (LPAC)
Footnotes
3. LAROUCHE'S FORECAST OF OCT. 1987 FINANCIAL CRASH; May 26, 1987.
4.ESTABLISHMENT OLYMPOS DEFIES GOD IN STOCK-MARKET HOAX; by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.; EIR; Oct. 30, 1987.
5. THE OCTOBER FINANCIAL CRASH HAPPENED ON SCHEDULE; by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.; The New Federalist; Nov. 2, 1987.
6. SWEDISH MILITARY WARNS OF SOVIET MINl-SUBS; by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.; in the Morning Briefing; April 27, 1983.
7. THE GREAT CRISIS OF 1989-1992; by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr; Pamphlet; July 4, 1989.
8. THE RECOVERY THAT NEVER WAS: THE BREAKING INTERNATIONAL CRISIS; by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.; EIR Quarterly Economic Report; April 15, 1985.
9. 'WE NEED A CRASH NOW,' SAYS LYNDON LAROUCHE; by John Sigerson; EIR; Oct.6, 1989.
10. THE COMING DISINTEGRATION OF FINANCIAL MARKETS, by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.; EIR; June 24, 1994. Since this was written in 1994, that means LaRouche considers himself the best economic forecaster since... 1954!
11. WE ARE GOING TO SAVE THE PEOPLE AND THE NATION!, by Lyndon H. LaRouche Jr.; Pamphlet; October 27, 1991.
12. LAROUCHE ISSUES A WARNING OF FINANCIAL SHOCK AHEAD; by John Hoefle; EIR; February 23, 1990.
13. WHY THE BANKING SYSTEMS WILL EXPERIENCE A BLOW-OUT IN 1986-87; by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.; EIR; June 27, 1986.
14. THE DANGER OF GENERAL WAR, by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr., Pamphlet, July 18, 1976.
15. CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE LAROUCHE SAYS U.S. ELITES ADOPT ADMINISTRATIVE FASCISM, by Lyndon H. LaRouche Jr.; in The Washington Times; Feb. 21, 1990.
16. WHY MOST NOBEL PRIZE ECONOMISTS ARE QUACKS; by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr., EIR, July 28, 1995. \\ 17. "Can you, personally, survive this bust?"; by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.; in EIR; July 18, 1999.
18. The Great Depression of 1975 White Paper of the US Labor Party and the ICLC
19. Fidel Castro's June 2, 1985 interview with Joelmir Beting in the Brazilian publication, Folha de Sao Paulo, reprinted in "Global Showdown, The Russian Imperial War Plan for 1988", EIR Special Report, July 24, 1985.
20. "The Great Crash Of 2004-2005 Is Here!" by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr., November 28, 2004
21. THE GREAT CRASH OF 2005, Keynote by Lyndon LaRouche at the ICLC/Schiller Institute annual Presidents' Day conference on Feb. 20, 2005.
22. The depression of the 1990s: America's life and death crisis by Lyndon H. LaRouche (EIR Special Report-Introduction; Sept. 18, 1992)
23. "Organizing the Recovery From the Great Crash of 2007", webcast on Nov. 16, 2006
24. "Your Time is Running Out!" by Lyndon LaRouche, EIR, June 5, 1997. .
25. Depression Ahead? by Lynn Marcus in INTERNATIONAL SOCIALIST REVIEW (Volume 22 Number 1 (Whole No.154), Winter 1961).
26. SCHILLER INSTITUTE - Labor Day Conference September 1-2, 2001.
27. by Lyndon LaRouche, September 30, 2009